Presentation of 'Identity, Partisanship, Polarization: How democratically elected politicians get away with autocratizing Hungary' – a new publication by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's 'Democracy of the Future' Office and Policy Solutions.

This Policy Solutions research explores the Hungarian society's major problems in 2024.

This Policy Solutions study shows which advantages and drawbacks Hungarians are most likely to associate with the European Union in 2024 and how they assess the economic balance of EU membership.

In its comprehensive survey of foreign policy attitudes in Hungary in 2024, Policy Solutions looks at the world through the lens of Hungarian public opinion.

If voters had to choose between supporting democracy and adhering to party loyalty or policy interests, what do they choose? With an experimental research design, we surveyed 1000 Hungarian respondents in order to find out who would put democracy above all else, and what issues voters are prepared to trade-off democracy for.

Article by András Bíró-Nagy to Hope Not Hate's special report on the 2024 European elections.

“Hungarian Politics in 2023”, the annual review of Policy Solutions has been published.

We cordially invite you to the official book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2023”, an annual review of Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 19 January at Aranytíz Kultúrház.

This research aims to explore the major hopes and fears of the Hungarian society in 2023.

Book launch of “Hopes, Aspirations and Fears – A Comprehensive Survey of Hungarians in 2023” – a new publication by Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 23 November 2023.

Policy Solutions' comprehensive survey reveals what the EU means for Hungarians in 2023, how Hungarian voters perceive current trends in the European Union and what changes they would like to see in the EU's priorities.

Book launch of “What kind of EU do Hungarians want: Hungarian Society and the European Union in 2023” – a new publication by Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 21 September 2023.

Policy Solutions' comprehensive survey of foreign policy attitudes reveals how Hungarian public opinion sees the world in 2023.

Book launch of “The World Through Hungarian Eyes: Foreign Policy Attitudes in Hungary in 2023” – a new publication by Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 8 June 2023.

The goal of this study is to give valuable input for the development of effective green communication.

In a new article for the Progressive Post magazine of FEPS, András Bíró-Nagy argues that despite high support for EU membership in Hungary, over a decade of Eurosceptic rhetoric by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has had a lasting impact on voters’ attitudes.

“Hungarian Politics in 2022”, the annual review of Policy Solutions has been published.

We cordially invite you to the official book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2022”, an annual review of Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 20 January at Budapest Music Center.

This research explores how Hungarians perceive the quality of public services and what changes they have experienced during the 12 years of the Orbán government.

Book launch of “Rate your state: Public services in Hungary ” – a new publication by Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 1 December 2022.

This comprehensive research reveals how Hungarian society views the two and a half years of the COVID-19 crisis. We have looked in detail at the long-term effects of the pandemic on Hungarians' fears, health attitudes, lifestyle, work and mental health.

Book launch of “Post-COVID Hungary” – a new publication by Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 18 November 2022.

This Policy Solutions research measured the degree to which different worldviews are represented in Hungarian society. We not only looked at how Hungarians feel about a wide range of issues after the 2022 elections, but also at what has changed over the course of the last four years.

Book launch of “Hungary's Political Compass 2022” – a new publication by Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 21 October 2022.

New book on how European and global social democracy can steer a course through the crises, featuring a chapter by our director András Bíró-Nagy on Hungary.

This publication by Policy Solutions reveals the state of political polarization in Hungary after the 2022 parliamentary elections.

Which ministers belong to PM Orbán's innermost circle? What do we need to know about the new faces and the returning ministers? Policy Solutions analysis.

Book launch of “Divided Hungary: Political polarization of the Hungarian society after the 2022 general elections” – a new publication by Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 30 June 2022.

This publication by Policy Solutions aims to go beyond the question of "remain or leave" and provide a more nuanced picture of how Hungarians see the country's place and future in the European Union.

Book launch of “How much EU do Hungarians want? Pro-EU and Eurosceptic attitudes in Hungary” – a new publication by Policy Solutions. The event will take place on 27 May 2022 at Európa Pont.

Policy Solutions analysis about the reasons behind the re-election of Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party.

Policy Solutions economic analysis by Péter Bucsky on how effectively EU funds have been spent in Hungary since 2010.

“Hungarian Politics in 2021”, the annual review of Policy Solutions has been published.

We cordially invite you to the online book launch of „In spirit, Hungarians have moved past the pandemic: Hungarian society in the 4th wave of the Covid-19 crisis”. The event will take place on 25 November.

This publication explores the major anxieties and fears of the Hungarian society.

We cordially invite you to the online book launch of “Hungary’s Anxiety Map 2021”, a joint publication by Policy Solutions and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The event will take place on 26 May 2021.

This publication reveals how Hungarian society has experienced the past year of the COVID-19 pandemic, and how they evaluate the Orbán government’s crisis management efforts.

We cordially invite you to the online book launch of “Covid-19 and Crisis Management: How Hungarians Experienced the Past Year”, a joint publication by Policy Solutions and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The event will take place on 22 April 2021.

Article by András Bíró-Nagy, Director of Policy Solutions has been published in the Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies

“Hungarian Politics in 2020”, a joint annual review of Policy Solutions and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has been published.

We cordially invite you to the official online book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2020”, a joint annual review of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Policy Solutions.

This article discusses the relationship between the two leaders in the context of Hungary-Serbia relations as well as discussing their shared approaches to politics, both in a domestic and European context.

This publication presents the opportunities for green-left politics in Hungary in the context of the economic and social crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

We cordially invite you to the online book launch of “The prospects of green-left politics in Hungary”, a joint publication by Policy Solutions and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

The aim of this research was to explore the views of the Hungarian society about the regime change of 1989-1990 after 30 years.

This new Policy Solutions-FES publication reveals what the Hungarian society thinks about the last ten years of the Orbán government.

“Hungarian Politics in 2019”, a joint annual review of Policy Solutions and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has been published.

We cordially invite you to the official book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2019”, a joint annual review of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Policy Solutions.

New Policy Solutions research on the main concerns of dissatisfied voters and their assessment about the work of the governing parties and the opposition.

The FEPS and Policy Solutions website of reference, the Populism Tracker sees four years of existence. This rich material is then collected in a yearly publication that we have the pleasure to share with you – "The State of Populism in Europe 2018".

The central objective of this book is to offer potential and effective answers to NGOs, politicians or anyone who wants to counter populism.

“Hungarian Politics in 2018”, a joint annual review of Policy Solutions and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has been published.

We cordially invite you to the official book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2018”, a joint annual review of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Policy Solutions.

In their most recent research study, Policy Solutions and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung have sought to find out how pervasive and dominant a sense of fear is in Hungarian society.

The Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Új Egyenlőség online magazine and Policy Solutions cordially invite you to their joint Public Discussion, entitled: Political Values of the Hungarian Society - From death penalty to universal health care

Policy Solutions considers it as an absolute priority that at the beginning of the new parliamentary term the conclusions on which the opposition can establish its strategy for the next years should be made on the basis of facts and figures. “Social democratic values in Hungary”, the joint publication of Policy Solutions and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung aims to contribute to this process by surveying the public acceptance of the key pillars of social democratic values in Hungary.

As parliamentary elections were held on 8 April 2018, Policy Solutions researchers evaluated the Hungarian political situation and the most important political trends for numerous leading international media outlets.

This FEPS - Policy Solutions - FES Budapest book surveys the popularity and influence of populist parties in the EU in 2017. Readers can also learn in more detail about the state of populism in five EU countries where elections were held last year.

“Hungarian Politics in 2017”, a joint annual review of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Policy Solutions has been published.

We cordially invite you to the official book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2017”, a joint annual review of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Policy Solutions. Date and time of the event: 19 January 2018 (Friday), 10:00-12:00. Venue: Aranytíz Cultural Center (1051 Budapest, Arany János utca 10.)

The Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Budapest and Policy Solutions cordially invite you to their joint book launch event, entitled: What is the Hungarian Dream? Conference on the Hungarians’ vision of a desirable future

The Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) and the Policy Solutions political research institute cordially invite you to our joint conference entitled:  „The Flexible Solidarity”  - How Progressive Parties Handled the Migration Crisis in Central Europe 

The Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Budapest and Policy Solutions cordially invite you to their joint conference, entitled: ‘Hungarian MEPs - What have they done for you?’.

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Budapest, CEU Center for European Neighborhood Studies, Policy Solutions and Political Capital cordially invite you to their joint conference, entitled: ‘Fighting Back: Liberal Democratic Responses to the Populist Challenge’.

Although political and other types of discrimination are severely prohibited by Hungarian laws, and freedom of expression is a right laid down in the new constitution, it is not uncommon for the Hungarian government to retaliate against those with opposing views – highlights Policy Solutions in its new analysis.

“Hungarian Politics in 2016”, a joint annual review of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Policy Solutions has been published.

We cordially invite you to the official book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2016”, a joint annual review of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Policy Solutions. Date and time of the event: 20 January 2017 (Friday), 10:00-12:00. Venue: Budapest Music Center, Library (1093 Budapest, Mátyás utca 8.)

Although Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is in the frontline of the fight against the current direction of the EU, the EU Parliamentarians of his Fidesz party share a more “European” view, as they still vote in line with the European People’s Party on symbolic issues – a new study conducted by VoteWatch and Policy Solutions highlights. Interesting case studies include Russia, in which, despite Viktor Orbán urge to end the punishment of Moscow, Fidesz MEPs still rejected a proposal that would have stopped sanctions against Russia.

András Bíró-Nagy and Tamás Boros, co-directors of Policy Solutions have published a new analysis on the strategy shift of Jobbik, Hungary's far-right party. The book chapter entitled 'Jobbik going mainstream. Strategy shift of the far-right in Hungary' is a contribution to a new book on the 'Extreme Right in Europe'.

Our photobook, Politics and Classes, presents 20 different Hungarian voting groups through 20 photos. The pictures were taken by photojournalist Ákos Stiller based on opinion polls describing the different social groups.

​An international conference was held by Policy Solutions and the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) on 2 June 2016 in Brussels on the political background of the refugee crisis. The purpose of this joint conference was to review how politicians and the society in central and eastern Europe have responded to the current refugee crisis.

The aim of Policy Solutions’ study – ‘The Hungarian public and the European Union’ – is to investigate how the Hungarian public opinion has changed about the European Union since 2010, in a period when the EU had to adapt to continuous crisis management, while at the same time domestic critical voices have also increased.

The Policy Solutions and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung cordially invite you to their joint book launch event of the ‘Politics and Classes’ Photobook.

The Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) and the Policy Solutions political research institute cordially invite you to our joint conference entitled: The Political Background of the Refugee Crisis in Europe.

Policy Solutions has launched a new website with the title ‘Képviselőfigyelő’ that follows the work of representatives in the Hungarian Parliament, making the work of the institution more transparent and easier to check on.

The Policy Solutions and the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) cordially invite you to their joint conference, entitled ‘Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in Hungary and Central and Eastern Europe'.

The Policy Solutions political research institute and the Greens/EFA Group in the European Parliament cordially invite you to our joint conference, entitled ‘The Russian presence in the European Energy Market - The Expansion of Paks NPP and other Russian Investments in the Region’.

Due to the attacks in Brussels and the terror level 4, “The political background of the refugee crisis” conference is postponed for a later date. We will keep you updated about the exact date.

This publication is a comprehensive overview of developments, events and trends in Hungary in 2015. It focuses on four broad areas.

We cordially invite you to the official book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2015”, a joint annual review of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and Policy Solutions.

In the last few years, Policy Solutions has received questions on a regular basis from investors, journalists, diplomats and politicians concerning the political situation in Hungary. That is why we have decided to launch our new service, 'Political Analysis & Forecast', an overview on Hungarian politics in English.

Tamás Boros' analysis on the political background of the Hungarian refugee crisis, published by the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS).

Policy Solutions' analysis on the political background of the Hungarian refugee crisis can now be downloaded from our 'Analyses' section.

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and Policy Solutions have jointly decided to hold a conference entitled ’The far-right and the mainstream’. The conference aims to provide an in-depth investigation of the interaction between the far-right and mainstream politics.

Policy Solutions and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation have jointly decided to examine the presentation in selected major media of various foreign policy conflicts that have surfaced since autumn 2014, along with the domestic policy divisions they engender.

We would kindly like to invite you to a conference entitled The Hungarian Media and Foreign Policy Conflicts. The conference aims to review how the Hungarian media have handled the following issues over the past few months: the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the scandal surrounding the American ban on the entry of certain high level Hungarians officials and German criticisms about the state of Hungarian democracy.

In collaboration with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Policy Solutions presents an annual review of Hungarian politics. This publication is a comprehensive overview of recent developments, events and trends in Hungary in 2014.

We cordially invite you to the official book launch of “Hungarian Politics in 2014”, a joint annual review of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and Policy Solutions. This publication is a comprehensive overview of developments, events and trends in Hungary in 2014.

From a Hungarian perspective, there seem to be two Germanies these days, which is somewhat ironic given that we are coming up on the 25th anniversary of the events that ended Germany's division.

We cordially invite you to our international conference entitled “Illiberal democracies in Europe”.The event will be held on the 28th of November 2014, and is organized by the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies together with Táncsics Mihály Foundation. The event’s professional partner is Policy Solutions.

Municipal elections tend to be more grateful subjects for the spokespersons of losing national parties than parliamentary elections because there are hundreds or thousands of results, and victory and defeat are not necessarily clear-cut. Even in the worst defeat, national parties can point to some local successes that redeem their efforts or at least qualify the totality of their defeat.

On 23rd July 2014 in Budapest, Policy Solutions and the European Values Think Tank (EV TT), a Prague-based public policy research institute, organized a National Seminar on political communication of integration of minorities, consisting of a roundtable discussion and public debate.

Fidesz’ media dominance is so conspicuous that even the OSCE’s foreign observers could not help noticing it; it was a significant aspect in their determination that the government had given itself an unfair advantage in the election. Now Fidesz has done a significant step towards remedying this unfair situation by giving the left-wing opposition access to a major media outlet…

The EP election in Hungary resulted in a clear victory for the governing party, Viktor Orbán's Fidesz. The national vote was characterised primarily by an internecine competition on the left and secondarily by a battle between the far-right and the left. The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) lost the former, but left-wing parties outperformed Jobbik.

The election is over and it has ended in a clear victory for the governing party, Fidesz. This was the first sentence of our analysis in April, and it is the first sentence again. Apart from that, the election was primarily an internecine competition on the left and a battle between the far-right and the left. MSZP loses the former and the left wins the latter.

The election is over and it has ended in a clear victory for the governing party, Fidesz. But some underlying details provide interesting and important insights. First, we offer some general observations about election night and then we proceed to evaluate the outcome from the perspective of individual parties, also reflecting on their reactions.

Policy Solutions took an in-depth look at the phenomenon of voter abstention in Hungary. Combining turnout data since 1990 with recent polling results, it has affirmed some longstanding assumptions about the segment of the electorate that is likely to stay at home on election day. It has also refined some of them, however, providing a more nuanced view of this problem.

In the study on Non-Voters in Hungary the political research institute Policy Solutions, in collaboration with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, undertook to find out who in Hungary today regularly fails to participate in elections and what the underlying reasons are for this group’s withdrawal from politics.

The governing supermajority amended the constitution for the fifth time since its adoption in September. The fifth amendment introduced a whole range of changes, including three ostensibly enacted to satisfy the unceasing criticisms from abroad.

As the political scene moves on from a largely lethargic summer to a more active autumn, the political agenda will be dominated by issues linked to next year’s election campaign. Some issues have a direct bearing on the election, such as the struggle of MSZP and E14 to come up with a workable model of uniting the left-wing opposition against Fidesz.

Fidesz has made no secret of its growing dislike of the European Union and especially its representatives. Viviane Reding is only the most recent high profile target in a long series of attacks on the EU and some of its leading politicians.

The problem of campaign financing has dogged Hungarian democracy for two decades. Fidesz' planned reforms will hardly solve any of the problems. Instead, to further the governing parties' edge in 2014, they will create new ones.

With the agreement between Gordon Bajnai and Attila Mesterházy, the left is finally making genuine advances towards an electoral alliance for 2014. But many key issues remain unresolved and there are numerous crucial details that might lead to conflicts down the road.

It seemed unlikely a few months ago, but Fidesz' star is on the rise. Already towards the end of last year it had managed to halt its steady decline in the polls, and since January it has been expanding its base while the opposition is apparently struggling. This is unsurprising, since Fidesz is resorting to tried and tested methods of financial populism that voters apparently can't get enough of.

Hungary's new constitutional regime is proving far less stable than its creators had promised. Even before it entered into effect last January, the governing parties had added a number of provisions to the Fundamental Law, some of which the Constitutional Court quashed on formal grounds.

Fidesz is experiencing a slight tailwind going into 2013, reinforcing an already relatively strong position. After the Constitutional Court scuttled its main strategy for keeping the biggest risk factor, disaffected voters, at home during the election, however, the strategic choices available to the governing party for the remainder of its term are also more significant electorally.

2012 has not brought a massive shift in the political fortunes of the key Hungarian political players, but even the slight changes reveal a dynamic that will cause the governing party, Fidesz, some headaches. Still, despite significant troubles Fidesz remains in a far stronger position for 2014 than MSZP was during the same period of its most recent term.

Another senior governing party politician is embroiled in a plagiarism scandal, and the details of the affair look very similar to the imbroglio that ultimately brought down former President Pál Schmitt.

The much awaited new Act on Electoral Procedures has been finally adopted, and from new rules on voter registration all the way to peculiar campaign advertisement regulations, it contains all the controversial elements that critics have lambasted for months.

Hungary’s green party, LMP is a young party facing weighty choices. Its policy of maintaining equal distance to MSZP and Fidesz appears untenable as pressure mounts to join a left-wing alliance to oust the Orbán government in 2014.

Gordon Bajnai came close to declaring his candidacy for prime minister, but ultimately shrank back from a pledge to run.

The political parties on the left are lucky that they had no major events planned for the 23 October commemoration of the 1956 revolution, for they would have been upstaged by the pre-announced announcement of former Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai’s return to political life.

To keep the budget within EU mandated limits, the government has introduced new austerity measures after admitting that its pessimistic growth projections were in fact wildly optimistic.

Following the reforms of the respective laws on municipal and parliamentary elections, Fidesz has finally introduced the last piece of the electoral rules puzzle, the new bill on electoral procedure.

Fidesz is wrapping up its efforts to uncover instances of verifiable corruption under the previous government.

More than the polling results of individual opposition parties, the question of whether a comprehensive left-wing alliance can be formed has emerged as the crucial issue in terms of evaluating the potential for a government change in 2014.

During the famous ping-pong diplomacy of the 1970s, the People’s Republic of China and the US exchanged visits by table tennis players to pave the way for improved relations between the two countries.

Talk of voter registration has intensified over the summer, and while some argue that Fidesz will ultimately balk because of unpredictable outcomes and/or the fear of judicial intervention, the introduction of some form of registration still appears likely.

If past summers are an indication, the next few weeks won’t be very exciting politically speaking.

At halftime, the opposition is in much the same bad shape as Fidesz.

Fuelled by the perception that its electoral victory was a mandate to influence the course of Hungarian politics for a long time, Fidesz has comprehensively restructured democratic institutions so as to enhance its own powers.

Fidesz has reached the middle of its four-year term, and its goal of quickly boosting growth and adding jobs has failed spectacularly.

Ties to big business and shadowy businessmen have always been a contentious issue in post transition political discourse, but Fidesz excelled at lambasting its predecessor as the ‘banker’s government’.

The Orbán government has reached the middle of its term and it marked the occasion with the first significant cabinet reshuffle since it entered office.

Consolidation is one of the buzzwords in Fidesz’ current communication.

No loud gasps were heard when Fidesz nominated its MEP János Áder as the candidate to succeed President Pál Schmitt.

A Policy Solutions áprilisi angol nyelvű elemzései elsősorban a köztársasági elnöki intézmény sorsát járták körül.

In light of last week’s events, President Pál Schmitt’s resignation on Monday came as a surprise.

With its proposal to fully release the files on informants working for the secret police under the communist regime, LMP has successfully driven a wedge between Fidesz and significant portions of the right-wing intelligentsia, as well as between the younger and older members of Fidesz’ and KDNP’s parliamentary factions.

After a tumultuous relationship in its first two years in office, Fidesz appears poised to reconcile with the banking sector.

While Fidesz’ standing among likely voters continues to be strong, it experienced a massive collapse among the population at large.

With their profligate ways, many governments have sown the seeds of potential penalties from Brussels on account of excessive budget deficits, but the Orbán-government is now most likely to reap the dire consequences.

Fidesz has promised that the spring session of parliament will be considerably more relaxed than the second half of 2011, when Parliament passed a record number of laws, many of which were controversial to boot.

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán gave his annual state of Hungary address last week. He offered no new insights, but provided an extensive defence of the government’s policies.

After months of protracted debates within the government and between the responsible ministry and various social stakeholders, Parliament finally passed the reform of the higher education system.

Recent allegations that President Pál Schmitt has plagiarised most if not all of his dissertation threaten to harm beyond repair a presidency that has been beset by difficulties to begin with.

Almost a year to date of his last appearance in the European Parliament, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faced his critics again in a heated plenary session.

Though he took the helm in troubled times, Gordon Bajnai’s premiership is widely considered a brief period of stability in the long period of chaos that has characterised Hungarian politics over the past years.

On January 2nd Fidesz took a little break and celebrated itself and its new Fundamental Laws at the Budapest Opera. After slightly over a week without a demonstration, the opposition, too, gathered for the occasion, though in a less celebratory mood than the official guests.

It took the Hungarian government months of increasing budget qualms to realise that it’s better to have an IMF umbrella than not to have one. Yet it appears that the realisation was theoretical.

We will probably never know for sure whether PM Viktor Orbán meant to say no to the agreement reached at the EU summit, but the major question for now is whether Orbán’s quick reversal heralds an actual willingness to enter into the fiscal union proposed by Germany and France.

With its two-thirds majority Fidesz dominates the present, with the Fundamental Laws supplanting the current Constitution it seeks to control the future, and now Fidesz seeks to make its view of history the definitive one as well. To this end, it has introduced a law on communist crimes and how belated justice might be achieved at least in some cases.

Fidesz’ electoral law is now almost complete and most of the crucial details have been submitted in a bill to Parliament. Most of these details reflect the trends we outlined a couple of weeks ago in our analysis of the bill’s rough draft. The most important novelty – and the one we focus on in our review below – is that Fidesz has also designed the new district boundaries.

With news about impending state default proliferating, the government has finally abandoned its stubborn refusal to talk to the IMF. For the time being, this has soothed markets and analysts alike, who were all concerned that by wedding itself to its anti-IMF stance, Fidesz would be unable to make this tough call even when it would offer the only way to avoid bankruptcy. Clearly, this is an enormous political defeat for the government.

Hungary is headed for an extremely tough year when neither the budget nor GDP will likely meet the government’s already significantly reduced projections. Orbán and Fidesz insist that everything is all right, but their dogged refusal to acknowledge reality only serves to stoke fears that they are not on top of things.

Fidesz set out to turn Hungary into a low and simple tax country. Realising one of its central campaign promises, it introduced a flat income tax early in its term. With the reality of the declining economy and the budget crunch setting in, however, both low and simple are out the window.

Well-attended as civil rallies may be, in the long-run Fidesz can only be defeated at the ballot box. One of the prominent organisations behind the street demonstrations, 4K!, has drawn the appropriate conclusion and is turning into a political party. Others may follow.

Debt was one of the major issues this week, with several online publications pointing out that despite the government’s insistence that victories have been achieved on the debt-reduction front, the real numbers look disquieting. In major part due to the forint’s deprecation, the budget’s net total debt was at an all time high in September, official figures reveal.

In Part II of our electoral law analysis we take a look at the more technical aspects of the new election law, analysing how changes to electoral system will affect seat distribution, voting behaviour and future majorities. We argue that Fidesz tinkers with the system in a way that will increase the likelihood of emerging victorious from a battle with a fragmented but overall strong opposition.

Just in time to fuel another round of speculation about early elections, a new concept of Fidesz’ proposals for new electoral rules emerged, supplanting an earlier proposal, which is still languishing in committee.

What was only a quickly reversed idea a couple of weeks ago is now a reality: the flat tax will be suspended for at least a year. While the higher rate will be applied already at income levels that ideally should have been subject to the lower rate, this policy reversal is a move in the right direction. In Hungary, the flat tax has failed to deliver the growth that some believe it has brought other countries in the region.

On occasion, the government shows scant concern for legal certainty and the rule of law, thus encumbering long-term calculations of returns on investment with the looming possibility of arbitrary taxes or other explicitly or effectively punitive action.

The constitutional process is far from over: phase two is just about to begin. In the autumn the government parties will introduce the so-called cardinal (or supermajority) laws that will flesh out various areas that were only addressed in broad strokes by the Constitution.

The government is seeking fundamental change in the way work works in Hungary. It seeks to simultaneously increase labour supply, employment and the time each worker spends at work. The latter appears unnecessary: a comparative review of European working times reveals that those already in employment work more than the average European.

In a stunning policy reversal, the government was briefly contemplating last week the introduction of a solidarity tax, which in effect would mean the abandonment of its most treasured reform, the flat tax.

From plans to tinker with the election laws, over Swiss franc-based loans all the way to debates how political accountability could be turned into criminal liability, here are four significant events that turned a low-key season into an active one.

A public opinion survey project conducted jointly by Policy Solutions and Medián shows that Hungary’s term at the helm of Europe had little effect on the popular perception of the EU. Though most citizens have heard about Hungary’s position as the rotating leader of the Union, they know little about the details of the presidency and (rightly) perceive that little has changed on account of Hungary having held this office.

Following up on its ambitious rhetorical pronouncements on the subject, the government has unveiled its National Labour Plan. Mostly the government counts on the measures reducing workers’ rights to incentivise private enterprises to create jobs. Even if this works, it will end up making a lot of people unhappy.

The Orbán government is fighting a lot of wars, some of which don’t even appear to be real. The war against the national debt and low employment is very real, however. While the government’s commitment to handling these challenges is not in doubt, some of the measures it plans to enact to achieve progress are dubious.

Street demonstrations have been among the most powerful manifestations of opposition to the government.Now that the Orbán-government is cutting key benefits and entitlements, the number of those adversely affected by the government’s policies is growing, as is the ratio of those willing to express their dissatisfaction publicly.

Hungarian foreign policy manoeuvres between an occasionally aggressive rhetoric, an ambitious ideology and a more sober and less ambitious diplomatic reality. While Fidesz has rarely gone beyond rhetoric in challenging major countries and international institutions, the few acts it has done and its occasionally loose cannon rhetoric might cause the country some grief in the future.

After a relaxed start, the government has been very active enacting changes in many walks of life. A lot of it seems to lack planning, while another portion seems wrongheaded or dubious. This week we are going to take a look at the third group: we will review the measures that we find most positive.

. Now the government has put an axe to large portions of the coalition, by cutting benefits and services that affect hundreds of thousands of citizens. Especially citizens in an economically vulnerable position are likely to turn against Fidesz.

As Fidesz plans to completely restructure the system of municipal governance in the country and will also revamp Budapest’s local government in the process, it is time to take a look at the status of politics in the nation’s capital a few months after the right took control for the first time since regime transition.

Rózsa Hoffmann’s first two higher education plans disappointed major figures in the governing party, the Prime Minister among them. Now the leaked information from her third plans threatens to inflame major portions of the higher education community as well.

With the presentation of the Convergence Programme, Fidesz is adding more specifics to its economic policy approach. In an extraordinary feat of communication, it has successfully embedded austerity measures within its economic programme and used the hubbub surrounding the constitution to divert attention from the less savoury specifics of said programme.

The first half of Hungary’s time in the spotlight of EU politics has passed. It was marred by squabbles over the media law and the ongoing debate about the constitution – in other words domestic issues that ideally should not have dominated coverage about Hungary at a time when it seeks to influence the progress and direction of European public policy.

Green parties are on the rise in European politics. LMP is hoping to ride the wave that is taking the German Greens from one electoral success to the next.

A growing number of voters refuse to name a party they would support, sending Fidesz and the entire political class a warning message. Fidesz’s popularity is reminiscent of a hot-air balloon with a small leak – the helium is gradually oozing out, slowly bringing the balloon from stratospheric heights back towards the ground.

Even though Fidesz has moved relatively swiftly in presenting its draft of the constitution, in light of the fact that it wants to have it passed by the end of April it does not leave much time for actually debating it.

Balanced was one of the most prominent buzzwords in politics in the past few months. The requirement of balanced news production was the most vociferously attacked aspect of the controversial media law, in large part because the term provides the Media Council with an overbroad mandate to request changes in news production. At Policy Solutions, we were interested in finding out how the television news on national TVs fare in terms of politically balancing their reporting.

Still almost two months to go until the final parliamentary vote on the new Hungarian constitution, but we already bet that none of the opposition parties will support the governing parties’ draft basic law. Fidesz has offered unprecedented concessions to LMP, but in light of the impractical conditions of the opposition parties, consensus is highly unlikely.

The Prime Minister caused some surprise when he chose not to specify his government’s eagerly awaited economic reforms, but simply prepared the ground for them. Orbán might not only leave the bad news for others but also tries hard to divert the attention from the most delicate issues.

With three largely unknown, but nevertheless major players behind bars, albeit only briefly, and further major targets in sight, the accountability machine finally graduates to the big leagues. Yet, there is a distinct possibility that it won’t stay there.

Fidesz’ dominant position is largely unchallenged, the opposition has failed to exploit the government’s weaknesses to improve its standing in the polls. There are some shadows for Fidesz, but at this point there are no strong indications that it might face strong competitors in the short run.

Politically, Fidesz stands to gain a lot by giving suffrage to newly minted Hungarian citizens across the border. Still, the opposition will be in a tough spot because Fidesz is right to argue that generally speaking, citizenship does not tend to be decoupled from suffrage.

The prime minister’s appearance in Strasbourg to introduce the Hungarian rotating presidency of the European Union yielded mixed results. From the government’s perspective, it is likely that what we posit was the overall goal – i.e. appealing to the Fidesz base at home without causing a serious backlash in Strasbourg – was achieved.

With the release and rapid removal from the internet of further recordings related to the UD Zrt. affair, the scandal that erupted two years ago came back into the limelight.

For months critics of the government’s more drastic measures have predicted that Fidesz will draw fire from the EU.

The end of the year is traditionally the time to compile top 10 lists. We gathered for a somewhat subjective list the top ten most important policies and measures enacted by the Fidesz-government since it took power.

For a few days Moody’s rating downgrading provided ammunition to everyone in the intensifying communication warfare. But while both sides of the political aisle engaged in mutual recriminations regarding the other side’s hypocrisy, a discussion of the underlying issues – whether the downgrading made sense and what impact it might have – fell by the wayside.

Along with the public opinion research company Median, Policy Solutions took the opportunity to explore both, the public's view of the future Hungarian presidency and EU membership in general. While Hungarians may be slightly more sceptical towards the Union than a couple of years ago, overall they remain supportive of membership and optimistic about its possibilities.

In light of the opposition’s weakness, the government has chosen to go after new opponents: the working middle-classes. The effective nationalisation of mandatory private pension funds has aroused the ire of even many Fidesz-loyalists in this group, in which the governing party has been popular.

The new media supervision law is stricter than the previous legislation, but by no means marks the end of the freedom of the press. As in many other areas, Fidesz thus far has not moved to advance its power by changing the legislative framework but rather by placing party loyalists in various independent positions.

With Fidesz’ former education minister Zoltán Pokorni launching a frontal assault on Christian Democratic education policy, the key question is whether Pokorni is just an old-timer with little to lose or whether he remains a well-connected figure whose pronouncements mark a warning to the KDNP’s ambitious education policy-maker Rózsa Hoffmann that she can’t set the course alone.

The opposition can’t yet sway the masses, but Fidesz may gradually awaken the left-wing base from its deep slumber. Just in case, the left leaning parties and organisations are vying to offer them a wide and growing selection of leaders and organisations.

In revolutionary Hungary, the guns are fortunately silent. If all goes to plan, the inconvenient Constitutional Court will be, too.

A Policy Solutions 2010. októberében is minden héten jelentkezett a legfontosabb magyar belpolitikai eseményeket és tendenciákat feldolgozó angol nyelvű elemzésével, a Hungarian Politics In-Depth kiadványaival.

For the Socialists, there is a long tunnel ahead and it is far from clear whether the flickering lights in the distance herald redemption or just another station in the purgatory.

As some discerning analysts predicted, the bank tax was not the end-point but the beginning of a process wherein the government turns to certain corporate sectors to cover the budgetary shortfalls. Critically as economists might see it, politically the solution seems astute in light of the real world constraints facing the government.

A first glimpse of the political dimensions of the red sludge disaster suggests that thus far little effort has been made to score political points off the crisis. But unfortunately the tragedy is far from over, and hence its potential political after-effects are also up for grabs…

With the entire country solidly lined up in the Fidesz column, it’s time to lift the veil and reveal what the government will be up to.

After a spectacular start, LMP’s political overdrive comes to a screeching halt.

Meet the most prominent MSZP candidates who may put small dents in Fidesz’ aura of invincibility and find out why.

Three months into its term, most of the Orbán cabinet’s plans for Hungary’s future remain shrouded in mystery.

Making it into the news has become much more difficult for Jobbik now that the novelty of its ascendance has worn off.

Budapest’s longtime mayor was extremely successful politically, but he outstayed his welcome.

Though it happens slightly less frequently than Halloween, Hungarians have their own version of trick or treat.

Though it is hard to tell whether on the whole this is an advantage or a handicap, it must be said that with some notable exceptions the Fidesz is nothing if not loyal to its top cadres.

Though it may seem as a whimper rather than a bang, the inauguration of President Pál Schmitt marks an important step in the establishment of the new constitutional order envisioned by the ruling party, Fidesz.

For all those who have complained that in economic policy the Fidesz-government is all about stopgap measures and improvisation, there is now the Széchenyi Plan, a fairly elaborate strategic vision of economic policy going forward.

Policy Solutions will launch its new political analysis, Hungarian Politics In-Depth, in August 2010.