2012 has not brought a massive shift in the political fortunes of the key Hungarian political players, but even the slight changes reveal a dynamic that will cause the governing party, Fidesz, some headaches. Still, despite significant troubles Fidesz remains in a far stronger position for 2014 than MSZP was during the same period of its most recent term. MSZP is inching upwards in the polls, but despite a series of disastrous economic news and plenty of controversial decisions by the governing party, the left remains unable to overtake Fidesz. As long as the gradual shift towards the left continues in the same pace, however, there are still realistic prospects for a united left in 2014. For Jobbik, there has been little movement, too little to buttress great hopes for 2014. But the party nevertheless boasts support, organisation and funds that could sustain it even if its parliamentary representation will be diminished on account of th e unfavourable electoral rules.

Our analyses are only available for our subscribers.